FPL Scout

Fixture difficulty — GW1–6

Continuous difficulty from ClubElo ratings, with the model's constants fitted against last season's betting market rather than chosen by hand — home advantage, the draw curve and the scoring rates all come out of 272 matches where we hold both the de-vigged odds and each side's Elo on the day. It reproduces the market's ordering at a Spearman of 0.92.

Why not just use FPL's own rating: across 760 team-fixtures it uses four values, and 45% of the season sits in one bucket. Inside that single bucket this model spans 0.19 to 0.96 — a near-certain win and a near-certain defeat, rated identically. No bookmaker prices exist for fixtures this far out, so they are not an option here.

Chance of winning · easiest run first
TeamRunWin/gmxWins#GW1GW2GW3GW4GW5GW6
ARS2064
0.281
0.7194.316
COVH
avlA
CHEH
sunA
bhaA
LEEH
MUN1915
0.417
0.5833.506
hulA
IPSH
eveA
MCIH
fulA
TOTH
MCI1971
0.422
0.5783.476
BOUH
cryA
COVH
munA
SUNH
livA
AVL1921
0.481
0.5193.116
bhaA
ARSH
hulA
NFOH
totA
BREH
LIV1911
0.511
0.4892.946
newA
NFOH
ipsA
FULH
bouA
MCIH
NEW1838
0.528
0.4722.836
LIVH
totA
BOUH
leeA
HULH
covA
EVE1803
0.564
0.4362.626
CRYH
bouA
MUNH
totA
IPSH
hulA
BRE1837
0.607
0.3932.366
TOTH
leeA
SUNH
bouA
CHEH
avlA
NFO1822
0.610
0.3912.346
LEEH
livA
TOTH
avlA
COVH
cryA
CHE1831
0.615
0.3852.316
fulA
BHAH
arsA
HULH
breA
BOUH
BHA1842
0.615
0.3852.316
AVLH
cheA
LEEH
covA
ARSH
sunA
FUL1813
0.618
0.3822.296
CHEH
sunA
CRYH
livA
MUNH
ipsA
BOU1872
0.618
0.3822.296
mciA
EVEH
newA
BREH
LIVH
cheA
CRY1804
0.636
0.3642.196
eveA
MCIH
fulA
IPSH
leeA
NFOH
LEE1797
0.707
0.2931.766
nfoA
BREH
bhaA
NEWH
CRYH
arsA
TOT1777
0.734
0.2671.606
breA
NEWH
nfoA
EVEH
AVLH
munA
SUN1736
0.767
0.2331.406
ipsA
FULH
breA
ARSH
mciA
BHAH
COV1661
0.794
0.2061.246
arsA
HULH
mciA
BHAH
nfoA
NEWH
IPS1640
0.843
0.1570.946
SUNH
munA
LIVH
cryA
eveA
FULH
HUL1533
0.916
0.0850.516
MUNH
covA
AVLH
cheA
newA
EVEH
Fixture difficultyhard → easyARS home · ars awayThe number beside each club is its current Elo rating.Win/gm is per fixture and always comparable; xWins is a sum over the # fixtures left.

How the clubs compare

Two measures at a time, one dot per club, 2025-26. Better is always up and to the right — an axis where a low number is the good outcome is reversed and says so, the same contract the heatmap follows. Click a dot for the club.

better on both →1.251.501.752.001.001.201.401.60Expected goals per matchExpected goals conceded per match — reversed, better is upARS — Expected goals per match 2.04, Expected goals conceded per match 0.87 · ArsenalAVL — Expected goals per match 1.48, Expected goals conceded per match 1.49 · Aston VillaBHA — Expected goals per match 1.54, Expected goals conceded per match 1.41 · BrightonBOU — Expected goals per match 1.76, Expected goals conceded per match 1.49 · BournemouthBRE — Expected goals per match 1.74, Expected goals conceded per match 1.56 · BrentfordCHE — Expected goals per match 1.90, Expected goals conceded per match 1.53 · ChelseaCRY — Expected goals per match 1.64, Expected goals conceded per match 1.58 · Crystal PalaceEVE — Expected goals per match 1.31, Expected goals conceded per match 1.58 · EvertonFUL — Expected goals per match 1.30, Expected goals conceded per match 1.60 · FulhamLEE — Expected goals per match 1.57, Expected goals conceded per match 1.48 · LeedsLIV — Expected goals per match 1.77, Expected goals conceded per match 1.42 · LiverpoolMCI — Expected goals per match 2.09, Expected goals conceded per match 1.22 · Man CityMUN — Expected goals per match 1.90, Expected goals conceded per match 1.32 · Man UtdNEW — Expected goals per match 1.59, Expected goals conceded per match 1.51 · NewcastleNFO — Expected goals per match 1.29, Expected goals conceded per match 1.70 · Nott'm ForestSUN — Expected goals per match 1.14, Expected goals conceded per match 1.59 · SunderlandTOT — Expected goals per match 1.23, Expected goals conceded per match 1.46 · SpursARSAVLBHABOUBRECHECRYFULLIVMCIMUNNEWNFOSUNTOT

Top right creates a lot and concedes little. Dashed lines are the mean of each axis. 15 outliers are labelled; hover any dot for the rest.

3 promoted clubs are absent: no top-flight record to plot. Drawing them at zero would put them in the worst corner for having no data, which is a different thing from being bad.

Team profiles

Style and performance from 2025-26. PPDA is passes allowed per defensive action, so a low number means an aggressive high press and a high number means sitting deep — the one metric here that has no FPL equivalent at all.

Coventry City, Hull City, Ipswich Town were promoted, so 2025-26 holds no Premier League style data for them. Shown below with Elo only — the team-level version of the cold-start problem, and a real blind spot until the season starts. Note the fixture ticker above does cover them: Elo carries over from the Championship, so a promoted club has a rating even with no Premier League match to its name.
TeamPPDAPressxGxGAxG diffDeepDeep conc.CSCS %PtsElo
Arsenal10.33#22.040.87+1.179.23.71950%852,064
Man City11.55#92.091.22+0.8610.84.31642%781,971
Man Utd11.43#81.901.32+0.587.57.0821%711,915
Chelsea10.62#41.901.53+0.377.26.6924%521,831
Liverpool10.54#31.771.42+0.359.85.61026%601,911
Bournemouth10.68#51.761.49+0.277.27.21129%571,872
Brentford11.64#101.741.56+0.196.37.31026%531,837
Brighton9.07#11.541.41+0.127.16.61026%531,842
Leeds13.01#111.571.48+0.095.36.3821%471,797
Newcastle10.70#61.591.51+0.097.27.4821%491,838
Crystal Palace14.98#171.641.58+0.067.06.11232%451,804
Aston Villa13.05#121.481.49-0.017.75.7924%651,921
Spurs10.98#71.231.46-0.235.46.8924%411,777
Everton14.57#151.311.58-0.275.57.51129%491,803
Fulham13.32#131.301.60-0.307.86.8924%521,813
Nott'm Forest14.89#161.291.70-0.425.57.7924%441,822
Sunderland13.66#141.141.59-0.455.68.01129%541,736
Coventry Citypromoted——————————1,661
Hull Citypromoted——————————1,533
Ipswich Townpromoted——————————1,640

Colour is percentile within the league, and always oriented so a stronger shade is better — the PPDA and xGA scales are inverted for that reason. Deep is deep completions: passes received within roughly 20 metres of goal.